Air cargo plays a critical role in global trade and reflects the macroeconomic dynamics of the global economy. This study analyzes how U.S. and trade partner country economic conditions affect bilater..
Air cargo plays a critical role in global trade and reflects the macroeconomic dynamics of the global economy. This study analyzes how U.S. and trade partner country economic conditions affect bilateral air cargo volumes from 2000 to 2024. Using a mixed-frequency panel of nine major trading partners, fixed-effects models are estimated at the monthly and quarterly frequencies, with lagged structures capturing both the short-term and long-run. The results reveal that the trade partner country’s GDP per capita significantly increases U.S. air cargo volumes, while exchange rate appreciation and higher tariffs reduce trade intensity. Contrary to expectations, U.S. interest rate rises positively correlate with monthly cargo volumes, reflecting robust import demand during tighter monetary periods. These results reaffirm that air cargo functions as a high-frequency indicator of international economic activity. Therefore, the study provides practical insights for policymakers, airlines, and researchers seeking to forecast trade flows and develop resilient strategies for the global air transport sector.
