Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Gabriel A. Vecchi, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Anne Sophie Daloz, University of Wisconsin-Madison
James Elsner, Florida State University
Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Michael Horn, University of Melbourne
Young-Kwon Lim, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, and I. M. Systems Group
Malcom Roberts, Met Office
Christina Patricola, Texas A&M University
Enrico Scoccimarro, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Adam H. Sobel, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Sarah Strazzo, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical UniversityFollow
Gabrielle Villarini, University of Iowa
Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Ming Zhao, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
James P. Kossin, NOAA/NCDC
Tim LaRow, Florida State University
Kazuyoshi Oouchi, JAMSTEC
Sigfried Schubert, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Hui Wang, NOAA/ NCEP
Julio Bacmeister, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Ping Chang, Texas A&M University
Fabrice Chauvin, Météo-France
Christiane Jablonowski, University of Michigan
Arun Kumar, NOAA/ NCEP
Hiroyuki Murakami, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Tomoaki Ose, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
Kevin A. Reed, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Ramalingam Saravanan, Texas A&M University
Yohei Yamada, JAMSTEC
Colin M. Zarzycki, University of Michigan
Pier Luigi Vidale, University of Reading
Jefferey A. Jonas, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and Columbia University
Naomi Henderson, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

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Daytona Beach


Applied Aviation Sciences

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While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.

Publication Title

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society



American Meteorological Society