Presenter Information

Michael W. Maier, PAEFollow

Location

Jim Henderson Welcome Center, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University - Daytona Beach

Start Date

6-11-2014 9:30 AM

Abstract

Spaceports strive to provide launch service providers safe, ready, reliable, and cost effective space access. But complex tradeoffs exist in spaceport selection where, for example, geographically favorable locations are often suboptimum in terms of launch weather reliability and vice versa. When launch rates are relatively low, delays due to unfavorable weather conditions are viewed as acceptable. Indeed, some launch vehicles are intentionally designed to accept decreased launch availability for added payload mass by using lighter, less rigid structures that cannot withstand wind loads known to occur on certain days. Mission assurance is achieved through real-time measurement of the launch area weather conditions and acceptance of delays until favorable winds are present.

As launch rates increase weather delays become a more important factor in launch availability and spaceport capacity. Increasing attention is being paid to the complex trade space between launch site selection, booster and launch system design, launch weather commit criteria, spaceport weather observation and forecast capability, and mission risk. To help inform these analyses and guide future investments this paper reviews the root cause of weather delays on space launch operations at Cape Canaveral AFS and the NASA Kennedy Space Center between 1988 and 2013, a unique sample of 779 countdowns leading to 522 launches.

As launch vehicle and spaceport reliability has improved at CCAFS/KSC, weather delay rates have remained largely unchanged but the cause of the weather delays has changed. Weather delays due to winds aloft have become less frequent due to more robust boosters and trajectory shaping techniques while delays due to ground winds have increased due to lean pad designs. Delays due to natural or triggered lightning continue as the next leading cause of launch delays. Delays due to Spaceport safety requirements for debris risk, visibility, blast overpressure, and toxic dispersion have decreased dramatically.

Area of Interest

Weather Impacts

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Nov 6th, 9:30 AM

Weather Delays on Space Launch Operations and Impact on Launch Site Capacity

Jim Henderson Welcome Center, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University - Daytona Beach

Spaceports strive to provide launch service providers safe, ready, reliable, and cost effective space access. But complex tradeoffs exist in spaceport selection where, for example, geographically favorable locations are often suboptimum in terms of launch weather reliability and vice versa. When launch rates are relatively low, delays due to unfavorable weather conditions are viewed as acceptable. Indeed, some launch vehicles are intentionally designed to accept decreased launch availability for added payload mass by using lighter, less rigid structures that cannot withstand wind loads known to occur on certain days. Mission assurance is achieved through real-time measurement of the launch area weather conditions and acceptance of delays until favorable winds are present.

As launch rates increase weather delays become a more important factor in launch availability and spaceport capacity. Increasing attention is being paid to the complex trade space between launch site selection, booster and launch system design, launch weather commit criteria, spaceport weather observation and forecast capability, and mission risk. To help inform these analyses and guide future investments this paper reviews the root cause of weather delays on space launch operations at Cape Canaveral AFS and the NASA Kennedy Space Center between 1988 and 2013, a unique sample of 779 countdowns leading to 522 launches.

As launch vehicle and spaceport reliability has improved at CCAFS/KSC, weather delay rates have remained largely unchanged but the cause of the weather delays has changed. Weather delays due to winds aloft have become less frequent due to more robust boosters and trajectory shaping techniques while delays due to ground winds have increased due to lean pad designs. Delays due to natural or triggered lightning continue as the next leading cause of launch delays. Delays due to Spaceport safety requirements for debris risk, visibility, blast overpressure, and toxic dispersion have decreased dramatically.