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Abstract

In the next 5 years and beyond, it is predicted that the U.S. airline industry will face a substantial pilot shortage. The impact of this pilot shortage on regional airlines has not yet been examined. It is hypothesized that regional airlines, which provide a significant stream of new pilots to the part 121 major airlines, will be hit the hardest. This study focuses on those near-term effects by asking how many aircraft will have to be taken out of service by 2023 if the pilot shortage materializes. A model is created that predicts how many regional aircraft will have to be parked. Results indicate that by 2023, the regional airline industry will likely contract significantly, with the pilot shortage as a major driving factor.

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