Presenter Email

aguiarm@my.erau.edu

Submission Type

Abstract - Paper/Presentation Only

Topic Area

Aviation and STEM Education; Data monitoring and advances in technology; Safety Management Systems

Keywords

Safety Management Systems, Risk Management, Safety, Decision-Making, Flight Training, Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

The purpose of the research was to create and validate a safety performance decision-making tool to transform a reactive safety model into a predictive, decision-making tool, specific to large, collegiate Title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 141 flight training organizations, to increase safety and aid in operational decision-making. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the study conducted simulation runs based on true operational ranges to simulate the operating conditions possible within large, collegiate CFR Part 141 flight training organizations with varying levels of controllable resources in terms of personnel (Aviation Maintenance Technicians and Instructor Pilots) and expenditures (active flight students and available aircraft). The study compared the output from three different Verification Scenarios. ANOVA testing indicated no significant differences appeared among the three different groups. Four What-if Scenarios were conducted by manipulating the controllable inputs. Changes to the controllable inputs are reflected by variations to the outputs demonstrating the utility and potential for the safety performance decision-making tool. The outputs could be utilized by safety personnel and administrators to make more informed safety-related decisions without expending unnecessary resources.

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Development of a Safety Performance Decision-Making Tool for Flight Training Organizations

The purpose of the research was to create and validate a safety performance decision-making tool to transform a reactive safety model into a predictive, decision-making tool, specific to large, collegiate Title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 141 flight training organizations, to increase safety and aid in operational decision-making. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the study conducted simulation runs based on true operational ranges to simulate the operating conditions possible within large, collegiate CFR Part 141 flight training organizations with varying levels of controllable resources in terms of personnel (Aviation Maintenance Technicians and Instructor Pilots) and expenditures (active flight students and available aircraft). The study compared the output from three different Verification Scenarios. ANOVA testing indicated no significant differences appeared among the three different groups. Four What-if Scenarios were conducted by manipulating the controllable inputs. Changes to the controllable inputs are reflected by variations to the outputs demonstrating the utility and potential for the safety performance decision-making tool. The outputs could be utilized by safety personnel and administrators to make more informed safety-related decisions without expending unnecessary resources.

 

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