Social Network Analysis of Major Syrian Factors
Faculty Mentor Name
Elise Anderson, Alan Saquella
Format Preference
Poster
Abstract
Modern Syria is a complicated and intensely factionalized state, characterized by numerous deep-seated ethnoreligious-political divides. These factions vary widely in their relationships with other factions and outside actors, visions of an ideal Syria, and available resources. These shifting power dynamics will form the bedrock of Syrian stability and instability as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham attempts to consolidate power, given its ouster of the Assad regime in December 2024 and subsequent offensives against dissenting factions such as the Druze National Guard and the Syrian Democratic Forces.
To analyze the composition of and relationships between these factions, this project utilized social network analysis (SNA). SNA maps demonstrate the strength and nature of social ties between individuals within factions, showing the degree of centralization and loyalty to leaders versus more diffused power structures with loyalty to a shared ideology, versus diffused power and disparate goals within a given faction. They also demonstrate hostile, amicable, and neutral relationships between factions, showing likely fault lines for future conflicts.
This project also utilizes ArcGIS mapping to analyze geospatial elements of conflict and power within the region. This includes control over major funding and supply sources within Syria, such as border crossings, ports, and oil fields. It also includes a map of major outbreaks of armed conflict since December 2024, with an emphasis on how these conflicts correspond to ethnic lines.
Social Network Analysis of Major Syrian Factors
Modern Syria is a complicated and intensely factionalized state, characterized by numerous deep-seated ethnoreligious-political divides. These factions vary widely in their relationships with other factions and outside actors, visions of an ideal Syria, and available resources. These shifting power dynamics will form the bedrock of Syrian stability and instability as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham attempts to consolidate power, given its ouster of the Assad regime in December 2024 and subsequent offensives against dissenting factions such as the Druze National Guard and the Syrian Democratic Forces.
To analyze the composition of and relationships between these factions, this project utilized social network analysis (SNA). SNA maps demonstrate the strength and nature of social ties between individuals within factions, showing the degree of centralization and loyalty to leaders versus more diffused power structures with loyalty to a shared ideology, versus diffused power and disparate goals within a given faction. They also demonstrate hostile, amicable, and neutral relationships between factions, showing likely fault lines for future conflicts.
This project also utilizes ArcGIS mapping to analyze geospatial elements of conflict and power within the region. This includes control over major funding and supply sources within Syria, such as border crossings, ports, and oil fields. It also includes a map of major outbreaks of armed conflict since December 2024, with an emphasis on how these conflicts correspond to ethnic lines.