Start Date
4-1968 8:00 AM
Description
This report summarizes the application of decision analysis to the selection of Voyager mission configurations for the Mars opportunities in the 1970 T s. In this context, the term nmission configuration" connotes the number and types of launch vehicles, spacecraft, and capsule systems to be launched at each Mars launch opportunity. This marks the first known application of the discipline of decision analysis to a space project.
Some 14 potential mission configurations are proposed for Mars missions from 1971 through 1981, ranging from a fly-by with a small, nonsurvivable atmospheric probe to orbiting spacecraft and large surface landers with extensive experiment capability. The goal of the decision analysis process is to select (1) the optimal configuration for the initial mission and (2) a project strategy for selecting mission configurations at subsequent opportunities. The first step toward this goal is to define some 56 possible outcomes of the Voyager Mars Project, consisting of all combinations of four outcomes from the orbiting spacecraft and 14 outcomes from the capsule system.
The heart of decision analysis is the decision tree, which contains two types of nodes and two types of branches. Emanating from decision nodes are alternative branches, each branch representing one of the configurations available for selection at that point in the project. Chance nodes are followed by outcome branches, one branch for each outcome that may be achieved at that point in the project. Probabilities of occurrence and values are assigned to each outcome. Costs are assigned to each decision alternative.
Decision Analysis of the Voyager Mars Project
This report summarizes the application of decision analysis to the selection of Voyager mission configurations for the Mars opportunities in the 1970 T s. In this context, the term nmission configuration" connotes the number and types of launch vehicles, spacecraft, and capsule systems to be launched at each Mars launch opportunity. This marks the first known application of the discipline of decision analysis to a space project.
Some 14 potential mission configurations are proposed for Mars missions from 1971 through 1981, ranging from a fly-by with a small, nonsurvivable atmospheric probe to orbiting spacecraft and large surface landers with extensive experiment capability. The goal of the decision analysis process is to select (1) the optimal configuration for the initial mission and (2) a project strategy for selecting mission configurations at subsequent opportunities. The first step toward this goal is to define some 56 possible outcomes of the Voyager Mars Project, consisting of all combinations of four outcomes from the orbiting spacecraft and 14 outcomes from the capsule system.
The heart of decision analysis is the decision tree, which contains two types of nodes and two types of branches. Emanating from decision nodes are alternative branches, each branch representing one of the configurations available for selection at that point in the project. Chance nodes are followed by outcome branches, one branch for each outcome that may be achieved at that point in the project. Probabilities of occurrence and values are assigned to each outcome. Costs are assigned to each decision alternative.
Comments
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