Location

Howard Johnson Plaza-Hotel, Columbia/ Enterprise Rooms

Start Date

28-4-1994 2:00 PM

End Date

28-4-1994 5:00 PM

Description

The NASA Shuttle Logistics Depot (NSLD) is tasked with the responsibility for repair and manufacture of Line Replaceable Unit (LRU) hardware and components to support the Space Shuttle Orbiter. Due to shrinking budgets, cost effective repair of LRUs becomes a primary objective. To achieve this objective, it is imperative that resources can be assigned to those LRUs which have the greatest expectation of being needed as a spare. Forecasting the times at which spares are needed requires consideration of many significant factors including, for example, failure rate, flight rate, spares availability, and desired level of support, among others.

This paper summarizes the results of the research and development work that has been accomplished in producing an automated system for assisting in the assignment of effective repair start-times for LRUs at the NSLD. This system, called the Repair Start-time Assignment System (RSAS), combines probabilistic modeling and expert system technology to generate an expected future need date. The result is a mathematically calculated value that has been adjusted heuristically to produce a date for beginning the repair that has significantly greater confidence (in the sense that a desired probability of support is assured) than dates produced using other techniques.

Since an important output of RSAS is the longest repair turn-around time that will ensure a desired probability of support, RSAS has the potential for being applied to operations at any repair depot where spares are on-hand and repair start-times are of interest. In addition, RSAS incorporates tenants of Just-In-Time (JIT) techniques in the connotation that the latest repair start-time (i.e., the latest time at which repair resources must be committed) may be calculated for every failed unit. This could aid in reducing the spares inventory for certain items, without significantly increasing the risk of unsatisfied demand.

Comments

Products

Session Chairman: Robert Stark, Director, Far West Regional Technology Transfer Center, Los Angeles, CA

Session Organizer: Rachel H. Webb, Lockheed Space Operations Company, Kennedy Space Center, FL

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Apr 28th, 2:00 PM Apr 28th, 5:00 PM

Paper Session III-B - A Combined Probabilistic and Expert System Approach for Assigning Repair Start-Times at the NASA Shuttle Logistics Depot

Howard Johnson Plaza-Hotel, Columbia/ Enterprise Rooms

The NASA Shuttle Logistics Depot (NSLD) is tasked with the responsibility for repair and manufacture of Line Replaceable Unit (LRU) hardware and components to support the Space Shuttle Orbiter. Due to shrinking budgets, cost effective repair of LRUs becomes a primary objective. To achieve this objective, it is imperative that resources can be assigned to those LRUs which have the greatest expectation of being needed as a spare. Forecasting the times at which spares are needed requires consideration of many significant factors including, for example, failure rate, flight rate, spares availability, and desired level of support, among others.

This paper summarizes the results of the research and development work that has been accomplished in producing an automated system for assisting in the assignment of effective repair start-times for LRUs at the NSLD. This system, called the Repair Start-time Assignment System (RSAS), combines probabilistic modeling and expert system technology to generate an expected future need date. The result is a mathematically calculated value that has been adjusted heuristically to produce a date for beginning the repair that has significantly greater confidence (in the sense that a desired probability of support is assured) than dates produced using other techniques.

Since an important output of RSAS is the longest repair turn-around time that will ensure a desired probability of support, RSAS has the potential for being applied to operations at any repair depot where spares are on-hand and repair start-times are of interest. In addition, RSAS incorporates tenants of Just-In-Time (JIT) techniques in the connotation that the latest repair start-time (i.e., the latest time at which repair resources must be committed) may be calculated for every failed unit. This could aid in reducing the spares inventory for certain items, without significantly increasing the risk of unsatisfied demand.

 

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