Location
Radisson Resort at the Port, Convention Center, Salon I
Start Date
1-5-2002 2:00 PM
End Date
1-5-2002 5:00 PM
Description
Over the last decade our ongoing analysis of the satellite and space launch markets has revealed that annual satellite launch demand forecasts based on commercial company or other industry related information has consistently exceeded the number of actual launches. This is not a new discovery, nor are we the first to report it. However, we call attention to the consistent trend of inaccurate forecasting because today’s commercial space launch market is characterized by a worldwide glut of vehicles and providers. Many factors external to the commercial launch market contributed to this glut, including several satellite program delays and cancellations. However, one external factor precludes a free market adjustment to the number of worldwide space launch providers and implies that overcapacity will not go away. This is the national need for assured access to space. Russia, Ukraine, China, India, Israel, Japan, Europe, and the US will retain their launch vehicles to ensure they have assured access, whether or not these systems are commercially viable. Understanding demand in this market environment is important.
Paper Session II-A - US Commercial Space Launch in the 21st Century
Radisson Resort at the Port, Convention Center, Salon I
Over the last decade our ongoing analysis of the satellite and space launch markets has revealed that annual satellite launch demand forecasts based on commercial company or other industry related information has consistently exceeded the number of actual launches. This is not a new discovery, nor are we the first to report it. However, we call attention to the consistent trend of inaccurate forecasting because today’s commercial space launch market is characterized by a worldwide glut of vehicles and providers. Many factors external to the commercial launch market contributed to this glut, including several satellite program delays and cancellations. However, one external factor precludes a free market adjustment to the number of worldwide space launch providers and implies that overcapacity will not go away. This is the national need for assured access to space. Russia, Ukraine, China, India, Israel, Japan, Europe, and the US will retain their launch vehicles to ensure they have assured access, whether or not these systems are commercially viable. Understanding demand in this market environment is important.
