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Date of Award

4-2007

Document Type

Thesis - Open Access

Degree Name

Master of Science in Human Factors & Systems

Department

Human Factors and Systems

Committee Chair

Jon French, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Albert Boquet, Ph.D.

Committee Member

Ram Nayer, Ph.D.

Abstract

The purpose of this applied research study was to test the sensitivity of the Evacuation Simulation Prediction (ESP) tool in predicting travel time during high volume traffic periods. The discrete event-based simulation tool was designed to aid local evacuation planning contingencies. Research of the Florida Department of Transportation traffic count data demonstrated parallel trends in rush hour volume versus hurricane evacuation volume. A model validation was designed to test if the model closely predicted high volume travel on a major interstate. For this macroscopic sensitivity test, volume, travel time and speed were collected to examine the baseline predictability under crash and non-crash, high volume travel periods. The comparative field data included collection during the 2006 Volusia County wildfire evacuations. The tool demonstrated a highly predictive fit; the variance accounted for (r2) was 0.993. The results of this study will be useful in the continued calibration and ESP tool validation.

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