Document Type

Article

Abstract/Description

The Space Project Team of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) International Futures Programme (IFP) determined that the future demand for space applications is likely to be substantial. They present three likely scenarios that have different geopolitical, socio-economic, and energy and environment scenarios. Using the three scenarios for Space 2030 presented by the IFP working group, this paper estimates a potential impact from the change in final demand of the space value chain to the U.S. economy. Because of the interrelations of applications, the space value chain is made up of three broad categories: information services, transport services, and manufacturing. Each scenario gives the most promising applications for the next 30 years, excluding military applications. The impact on the U.S. economy will be determined by using an Input-Output Analysis model and the most current data on U.S. economic output that is available. The most current Input-Output table is available through the World Input Output Database (WIOD) with data generated for 2009. Just as a reference, the most current published IO database that the Department of Commerce publishes is broken down into more categories than the WIOD, but only represents 2002 economic output. An outlook based on the most aggressive IFP scenario of a 40% growth in the commercial space industry was used to forecast industry-by-industry changes. Industries predicting significant growth as a result of growth in commercial space industry are: basic and fabricated metals; mining and quarrying; rubber and plastics; agriculture; air transport; and inland transport. The industries showing significant negative results from growth in the U.S. commercial space industry were: machinery, electricity, gas and water supply, education, wood products, other transport; other non-metallic minerals, and water transport.

Included in

Economics Commons

Share

COinS