Mentor Name

Dr Somi Shin

Course Title

RSCH 202 Intro to Research Methods

Course Number

RSCH 202

Submitting Campus

Worldwide

Student Status

Undergraduate

Project Abstract

This study aims to explore the complex implications of declining birth rates on the economy, focusing on GDP per capita as a crucial metric, and aims to uncover both potential opportunities and challenges stemming from this demographic transformation using regression analysis. Using a quantitative methodology and secondary data from OECD.stat, World Population Review, and World Bank, the study explores the relationship between declining birth rates and economic impacts. GDP per capita serves as an essential dependent variable, and it accounts for control variables such as labour force participation, literacy, and education levels, child dependence ratio, and physical capital. Past studies highlight the need to consider several variables, including labour force dynamics and educational attainment, to fully comprehend how birth rate declines impact economic prosperity. The preliminary result of the study identifies fertility as a statistically significant key independent variable for economic growth with a low r-square value. This highlights potential areas for improvements in future studies through the review of the model specification to ensure important variables have not been omitted or using a non-linear model for analysis. Understanding the economic effects of decreasing birth rates is crucial for governments and corporations because it helps guide policy decisions about economic development plans, labour market dynamics, and social security programs.

Keywords: declining birthrates, labour shortages, control variables, demographic shifts, economic impact, and GDP per capita.


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