Abstract Title

Resiliency Assessment and Planning Tool

Author Information

Hannah ThomasFollow

Is this project an undergraduate, graduate, or faculty project?

Undergraduate

individual

Authors' Class Standing

Hannah Thomas, Senior

Lead Presenter's Name

Hannah Thomas

Faculty Mentor Name

Christopher Grant

Abstract

The National Science Foundation’s definition of resiliency is “the ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, or more successfully adapt to actual or potential adverse events”. While this definition is informative and useful it lacks quantitative reference. There is a need for a resiliency assessment and planning tool to better plan and prepare for system wide disruptions. The resiliency definition provided by NSF leads to quantifiable measures of system resiliency on a value scale between zero and one. Such a tool would also have to be applicable to a stochastic system. The goal of this research is to develop a resilience, assessment and planning tool approach to a wide range of stochastics and determine the systems and durations applicable. This paper documents the development of a quantitative resiliency scale and demonstrates the tools and applicability on two complex, real world, transportation systems undergoing system wide disruptions. To accomplish this, a stochastic model will be created that address a systems absorption state, disruption state, and recovery state. The length of time and productivity for each state produces a value of resiliency between zero and one, with one meaning the system was affected inconsequentially from the disruption and zero meaning it never recovered. This universal measure of system resiliency will decrease the loss systems face from major disruptions.

Did this research project receive funding support (Spark or Ignite Grants) from the Office of Undergraduate Research?

No

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Resiliency Assessment and Planning Tool

The National Science Foundation’s definition of resiliency is “the ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, or more successfully adapt to actual or potential adverse events”. While this definition is informative and useful it lacks quantitative reference. There is a need for a resiliency assessment and planning tool to better plan and prepare for system wide disruptions. The resiliency definition provided by NSF leads to quantifiable measures of system resiliency on a value scale between zero and one. Such a tool would also have to be applicable to a stochastic system. The goal of this research is to develop a resilience, assessment and planning tool approach to a wide range of stochastics and determine the systems and durations applicable. This paper documents the development of a quantitative resiliency scale and demonstrates the tools and applicability on two complex, real world, transportation systems undergoing system wide disruptions. To accomplish this, a stochastic model will be created that address a systems absorption state, disruption state, and recovery state. The length of time and productivity for each state produces a value of resiliency between zero and one, with one meaning the system was affected inconsequentially from the disruption and zero meaning it never recovered. This universal measure of system resiliency will decrease the loss systems face from major disruptions.