Is this project an undergraduate, graduate, or faculty project?
Undergraduate
individual
What campus are you from?
Daytona Beach
Authors' Class Standing
Brianne Bernhardt, Senior
Lead Presenter's Name
Brianne Bernhardt
Faculty Mentor Name
Dr. Daniel Gressang
Abstract
Defense and intelligence communities continue to face the persistent challenge of assessing which non-state terrorist groups may employ weapons of mass destruction (WMD). With an overwhelming influx of information, this question remains difficult for analysts to answer with precision. Existing non-state terrorist WMD threat assessment models tend to rely on post-hoc analysis or speculative forecasting and lack scalable, data-driven frameworks for proactive evaluation. This paper addresses that gap by proposing an empirical testing of a theoretical model by Dr. Daniel Gressang, which suggests that determining three key variables—a group’s audience, message, and societal relationship—may allow analysts to assess the potential for a group’s WMD use. While the model has been cited in terrorism literature by renowned CBRN experts like Gary Ackerman and Victor Asal, it has not yet been empirically tested. The purpose of this paper is therefore twofold: to propose a framework for testing the theory and to highlight how its application could inform national security priorities. Adopting a structured tool for anticipating mass-casualty threats may allow for the efficient allocation of resources by those tasked with combating the complex threat landscape.
Did this research project receive funding support from the Office of Undergraduate Research.
Yes, SURF
Introducing a Test of Audience and Message: A Strategic Reassessment of WMD Non-state Terrorism
Defense and intelligence communities continue to face the persistent challenge of assessing which non-state terrorist groups may employ weapons of mass destruction (WMD). With an overwhelming influx of information, this question remains difficult for analysts to answer with precision. Existing non-state terrorist WMD threat assessment models tend to rely on post-hoc analysis or speculative forecasting and lack scalable, data-driven frameworks for proactive evaluation. This paper addresses that gap by proposing an empirical testing of a theoretical model by Dr. Daniel Gressang, which suggests that determining three key variables—a group’s audience, message, and societal relationship—may allow analysts to assess the potential for a group’s WMD use. While the model has been cited in terrorism literature by renowned CBRN experts like Gary Ackerman and Victor Asal, it has not yet been empirically tested. The purpose of this paper is therefore twofold: to propose a framework for testing the theory and to highlight how its application could inform national security priorities. Adopting a structured tool for anticipating mass-casualty threats may allow for the efficient allocation of resources by those tasked with combating the complex threat landscape.