Assessing Vulnerability to Heat Stress Trends in the Southeast United States
Abstract
The 4th National Climate Assessment identified extreme heat as a pressing threat to human health in the Southeast U.S. Adverse health impacts are exacerbated throughout the region by climate change, an older and rapidly growing population, and dramatic urbanization. Furthermore, extreme heat disproportionately affects disadvantaged groups, lower-income individuals, and workers in industries that require outdoor labor (e.g., agriculture). This disparity is particularly evident in densely populated metropolitan areas. For human health applications, wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) has been shown to be the most representative heat stress metric for human health impacts. Using WBGT and relative (percentile-based) thresholds for extremes, this study first investigates trends in summer heat stress at more than 100 ASOS stations throughout the Southeast U.S. To identify which communities in the region are most vulnerable to increasing heat stress, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) social vulnerability index (SVI) will be incorporated. The SVI uses county and census-tract level demographic, social, and economic metrics to identify at-risk communities. Combining the WBGT trends for 100+ ASOS stations with the SVI, a Southeast U.S. map created with ArcGIS Pro will be used to show the locations that face the biggest impacts from heat stress. Based on the combination of the SVI and heat stress trends, a numerical rating scale will be developed to show the areas that are most impacted by the dual threat of extreme heat and social vulnerability.
Assessing Vulnerability to Heat Stress Trends in the Southeast United States
The 4th National Climate Assessment identified extreme heat as a pressing threat to human health in the Southeast U.S. Adverse health impacts are exacerbated throughout the region by climate change, an older and rapidly growing population, and dramatic urbanization. Furthermore, extreme heat disproportionately affects disadvantaged groups, lower-income individuals, and workers in industries that require outdoor labor (e.g., agriculture). This disparity is particularly evident in densely populated metropolitan areas. For human health applications, wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) has been shown to be the most representative heat stress metric for human health impacts. Using WBGT and relative (percentile-based) thresholds for extremes, this study first investigates trends in summer heat stress at more than 100 ASOS stations throughout the Southeast U.S. To identify which communities in the region are most vulnerable to increasing heat stress, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) social vulnerability index (SVI) will be incorporated. The SVI uses county and census-tract level demographic, social, and economic metrics to identify at-risk communities. Combining the WBGT trends for 100+ ASOS stations with the SVI, a Southeast U.S. map created with ArcGIS Pro will be used to show the locations that face the biggest impacts from heat stress. Based on the combination of the SVI and heat stress trends, a numerical rating scale will be developed to show the areas that are most impacted by the dual threat of extreme heat and social vulnerability.