Is this project an undergraduate, graduate, or faculty project?
Undergraduate
Project Type
individual
Campus
Daytona Beach
Authors' Class Standing
Zachary Yack, Senior
Lead Presenter's Name
Zachary Yack
Faculty Mentor Name
Daniel Halperin
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Abstract
During the course of the Atlantic hurricane season, numerous tropical cyclones (TCs) recurve around the Bermuda high. Where this recurvature occurs can have a large influence on societal impacts. Even with the advancement of numerical weather models and improved satellite capabilities, it is at times difficult to forecast exactly when a storm may recurve (e.g., Irma 2017). This study analyzes the upstream synoptic scale patterns for both landfalling and recurving TCs near the Florida coastline. The goal is to determine if there are specific synoptic conditions that can help predict whether a TC is more likely to make landfall in Florida or recurve to its east 1-7 days before the landfall or recurvature occurs. The data used in this study came from the National Hurricane Center best track and the ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis during the period 1979 to 2017. These files were sorted into three categories, with the following times noted: landfall in Florida; first motion vector with a greater northward component than a westward component; and first motion vector with an eastward component. The 500 hPa geopotential height fields were recorded every 24 h from 24 to 168 h prior to the times of landfall or recurvature. Using ERA-I data, composites were created for each category and each time prior to landfall or recurvature. Differences in the composite means were then calculated and tested for statistical significance using a Mann-Whitney U-test. The results indicate that there are differences in the 500 hPa height patterns of landfalling and recurving TCs. However, the locations where the 500 hPa heights are statistically different varies with time before landfall or recurvature.
Did this research project receive funding support (Spark, SURF, Research Abroad, Student Internal Grants, Collaborative, Climbing, or Ignite Grants) from the Office of Undergraduate Research?
Yes, Spark Grant
Analysis of Upstream Synoptic Conditions for Tropical Cyclones that Pass Near or Over Florida
During the course of the Atlantic hurricane season, numerous tropical cyclones (TCs) recurve around the Bermuda high. Where this recurvature occurs can have a large influence on societal impacts. Even with the advancement of numerical weather models and improved satellite capabilities, it is at times difficult to forecast exactly when a storm may recurve (e.g., Irma 2017). This study analyzes the upstream synoptic scale patterns for both landfalling and recurving TCs near the Florida coastline. The goal is to determine if there are specific synoptic conditions that can help predict whether a TC is more likely to make landfall in Florida or recurve to its east 1-7 days before the landfall or recurvature occurs. The data used in this study came from the National Hurricane Center best track and the ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis during the period 1979 to 2017. These files were sorted into three categories, with the following times noted: landfall in Florida; first motion vector with a greater northward component than a westward component; and first motion vector with an eastward component. The 500 hPa geopotential height fields were recorded every 24 h from 24 to 168 h prior to the times of landfall or recurvature. Using ERA-I data, composites were created for each category and each time prior to landfall or recurvature. Differences in the composite means were then calculated and tested for statistical significance using a Mann-Whitney U-test. The results indicate that there are differences in the 500 hPa height patterns of landfalling and recurving TCs. However, the locations where the 500 hPa heights are statistically different varies with time before landfall or recurvature.