Date of Award

Summer 2024

Access Type

Thesis - Open Access

Degree Name

Master of Science in Civil Engineering

Department

Civil Engineering

Committee Chair

Stephen C. Medeiros

First Committee Member

Marwa El-Sayed

Second Committee Member

Siddharth Parida

College Dean

James W. Gregory

Abstract

In 2022, Volusia and Flagler Counties of northeast central Florida were impacted indirectly by consecutive Hurricanes Ian and Nicole; the destabilization of dunes and armoring infrastructure caused by Ian left the region susceptible to Hurricane Nicole, which caused unprecedented coastal damage to dunes and seawalls. The extent of damage that occurred within Volusia and Flagler Counties during the 2022 hurricane season, the underrepresentation of this region within sustainability and resilience research, and the ecological, social, and economic value of the geography provide just cause for scientific inquiry of the area’s coastal dynamics. This thesis specifically describes an investigation of Hurricane Ian’s impact on Volusia County by means of numerical modeling. The heavily validated ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) numerical model, which synthesizes vertically-integrated equations of mass and momentum into a generalized wave- continuity equation (GWCE), thereby producing solutions to shallow water equations, was used to simulate Hurricane Ian’s tidal and meteorological patterns over the domain of a refined mesh. The FLAgler VOlusia highResolution (FLAVOR) mesh was developed by paving a sub-mesh to a resolution of 50 m along the path of Volusia County’s seawalls and merging this with the validated HSOFS mesh. FLAVOR model performance across both tidal and meteorological simulations of Hurricane Ian was close to that of HSOFS and produced a satisfactorily greater inundation extent than that modeled by HSOFS along Volusia County’s coast, providing more precise metrics regarding the surface water elevation and surge velocity close to Volusia County’s seawalls. This model output, as well as output produced by successive refinements of the FLAVOR mesh, may be used to hindcast a variety of tropical cyclones and to forecast future coastal events for Volusia and Flagler Counties’ informed decision making in the realms of policy creation, evacuation coordination, stormwater management, and resilient design.

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