Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research





Key words

Safety Management Systems, Risk Management, Safety, Decision-Making, Flight Training, Monte Carlo Simulation


The purpose of the research was to create and validate a safety performance decision-making tool to transform a reactive safety model into a predictive, decision-making tool, specific to flight training organizations, to increase safety and aid in operational decision-making. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the study conducted simulation runs based on operational ranges to simulate the operating conditions with varying levels of controllable resources in terms of personnel (Aviation Maintenance Technicians and Instructor Pilots) and expenditures (active flight students and available aircraft). Four What-if Scenarios were conducted by manipulating the controllable inputs. Changes to the controllable inputs are reflected by variations to the outputs demonstrating the utility and potential for the safety performance decision-making tool. The outputs could be utilized by safety personnel and administrators to make more informed safety-related decisions without expending unnecessary resources.



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