Submitting Campus
Daytona Beach
Department
Applied Aviation Sciences
Document Type
Article
Publication/Presentation Date
12-4-2013
Abstract/Description
Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. The expected annual number of people exposed to tornadoes is highest for Illinois followed by Alabama and Indiana. For the four states with the highest tornado rates, exposure increases since 1980 are largest for Oklahoma (24%) and Alabama (23%).
Publication Title
Electronic Journal Severe Storms Meteorology
Publisher
Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology
Scholarly Commons Citation
Widen, H. M., Elsner, J. B., Amrine, C., Cruz, R. B., Fraza, E., Michaels, L., Migliorelli, L., Mulholland, B., Patterson, M., Strazzo, S., & Xing, G. (2013). Adjusted Tornado Probabilities. Electronic Journal Severe Storms Meteorology, 8(7). Retrieved from https://commons.erau.edu/publication/1604
Included in
Atmospheric Sciences Commons, Meteorology Commons, Probability Commons, Statistical Models Commons
