Submitting Campus

Prescott

Department

Applied Aviation Sciences

Document Type

Article

Publication/Presentation Date

5-2026

Abstract/Description

Hurricane Milton (October 2024) provides a compelling case study of a multiscale pathway to rapid intensification (RI), highlighting the alignment of synoptic preconditioning, favorable environmental conditions, and rapid inner-core structural evolution. The storm originated from the interaction of multiple tropical waves embedded within a low-level trough associated with the Central American Gyre, which enhanced low-level vorticity and moisture convergence prior to development. Upon entering the Gulf of Mexico, Milton encountered an environment characterized by anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and weak vertical wind shear, enabling steady intensification and the onset of explosive RI that exceeded conventional thresholds. During this phase, the vortex rapidly evolved into a compact, vertically aligned system with a well-defined eye and central dense overcast. Upper-level flow transitioned to strong anticyclonic outflow while vertical wind shear decreased to near zero, promoting efficient diabatic heating and warm-core amplification, as evidenced by increasing convective available potential energy (CAPE) and tropospheric thickness. These processes supported Milton’s intensification to Category 5 intensity. Subsequent fluctuations in intensity were associated with eyewall replacement cycles, followed by weakening due to increasing shear, cooler SSTs, and interaction with a midlatitude trough during approach to Florida, ultimately leading to structural degradation and extratropical transition. This case shows that rapid intensification depends on both favorable environmental conditions and strong inner-core processes, while internal structural changes can still influence how the storm strengthens.

Location

Prescott, AZ

Number of Pages

24

Additional Information

Senior Thesis

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